NHL picks · paper only

THU OCT 1

Updated 11:00 PM · Thursday October 1

These are test picks, paper money only: nothing here places a real bet. No picker is proven yet to beat PlayAlberta's closing price; a lab model needs about 100 settled picks before its first verdict.

Season so far

Every real pick (not the baseline tests), 1 unit each: 5 finished picks

2-3record
+1.05uprofit; $11 at $10 a pick
25%beat the closing price
0+5u-0.5uTue Sep 29: Under 5.5 goals at 2.31, won (+1.31u)Tue Sep 29: Under 4.5 goals at 3.74, won (+2.74u)Wed Sep 30: Under 4.5 goals at 3.93, lost (-1.00u)Wed Sep 30: Under 6.5 goals at 1.77, lost (-1.00u)Thu Oct 1: Florida Panthers to win in regulation at 2.23, lost (-1.00u)+1.05uTue Sep 29Thu Oct 1

Bet slip

2 live picks, each in the backed team's colours. Tap one to jump to its game.

Tomorrow · 6:00 PM
BOS @ WPG
Winnipeg Jets to win in regulation
2.46$10 wins $14.60
The price says 41% chance
Lab: home win, 12-24 h outLocked
Sun Oct 4 · 6:00 PM
FLA @ ANA
Florida Panthers to win in regulation
2.39$10 wins $13.90
The price says 42% chance
Lab: away win, 1-3 days outLocked

TONIGHT

Thursday, October 1

PHIPhiladelphia Flyers
5:00 PMMT · @
NJDNew Jersey Devils
Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils

Baseline tests (not recommendations)

New Jersey Devils to win1.70Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
New Jersey Devils to win1.66Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
New Jersey Devils to win1.59Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
New Jersey Devils to win1.63Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
Philadelphia Flyers to win2.21Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 days out
Philadelphia Flyers to win2.44Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 h out
Philadelphia Flyers to win2.42Baseline: every underdog, 3-6 h out
Philadelphia Flyers -1.53.64Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
Philadelphia Flyers -1.53.81Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
Philadelphia Flyers -1.53.91Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out

Baselines back both sides by design.

TBLTampa Bay Lightning
5:00 PMMT · @U 4.5
NYRNew York Rangers
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers
U 4.5Under 4.5 goals3.72$10 wins $27.20 · price says 27% chanceLockedPaper bot: main strategy · locked 5:05 AM

Baseline tests (not recommendations)

Tampa Bay Lightning to win1.75Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
Tampa Bay Lightning to win1.73Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
Tampa Bay Lightning to win1.71Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
Tampa Bay Lightning to win1.72Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
New York Rangers to win2.14Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 days out
New York Rangers to win2.24Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 h out
New York Rangers to win2.20Baseline: every underdog, 3-6 h out
New York Rangers -1.53.53Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
New York Rangers -1.53.58Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
New York Rangers -1.53.62Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out

Baselines back both sides by design.

BUFBuffalo Sabres
5:00 PMMT · @
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets
Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets

Baseline tests (not recommendations)

Buffalo Sabres to win1.94Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
Buffalo Sabres to win1.94Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
Buffalo Sabres to win1.93Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
Buffalo Sabres to win1.94Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
Buffalo Sabres -1.53.12Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
Buffalo Sabres -1.53.16Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
Buffalo Sabres -1.53.16Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out
Under 5.5 goals2.20Baseline: longshot unders, 1-3 days out
Under 5.5 goals2.20Baseline: longshot unders, 3-6 h out
MINMinnesota Wild
6:00 PMMT · @
NSHNashville Predators
Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators

Baseline tests (not recommendations)

Minnesota Wild to win1.74Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
Minnesota Wild to win1.71Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
Minnesota Wild to win1.69Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
Minnesota Wild to win1.71Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
Nashville Predators to win2.15Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 days out
Nashville Predators to win2.25Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 h out
Nashville Predators to win2.23Baseline: every underdog, 3-6 h out
Nashville Predators -1.53.49Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
Nashville Predators -1.53.61Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
Nashville Predators -1.53.61Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out
Under 5.5 goals2.24Baseline: longshot unders, 1-3 days out

Baselines back both sides by design.

SEASeattle Kraken
7:00 PMMT · @U 5.5
CGYCalgary Flames
Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames
U 5.5Under 5.5 goals2.08$10 wins $10.80 · price says 48% chanceLockedPaper bot: main strategy · locked 7:05 AM

Baseline tests (not recommendations)

Seattle Kraken to win1.97Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
Seattle Kraken to win1.97Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
Calgary Flames to win1.93Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
Calgary Flames to win1.93Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
Seattle Kraken -1.53.22Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
Seattle Kraken -1.53.21Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
Calgary Flames -1.53.15Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out

Baselines back both sides by design.

CHIChicago Blackhawks
7:30 PMMT · @U 5.5
UTAUtah Mammoth
Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Mammoth
U 5.5Under 5.5 goals2.18$10 wins $11.80 · price says 46% chanceLockedPaper bot: main strategy · locked 8:05 AM

Baseline tests (not recommendations)

Utah Mammoth to win1.52Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
Utah Mammoth to win1.49Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
Utah Mammoth to win1.46Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
Utah Mammoth to win1.48Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
Chicago Blackhawks to win2.61Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 days out
Chicago Blackhawks to win2.77Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 h out
Chicago Blackhawks to win2.82Baseline: every underdog, 3-6 h out
Chicago Blackhawks -1.54.36Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
Chicago Blackhawks -1.54.50Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
Chicago Blackhawks -1.54.58Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out

Baselines back both sides by design.

EDMEdmonton Oilers
8:00 PMMT · @U 5.5
VANVancouver Canucks
Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks
U 5.5Under 5.5 goals2.54$10 wins $15.40 · price says 39% chanceLockedPaper bot: main strategy · locked 10:05 AM

Baseline tests (not recommendations)

Edmonton Oilers to win1.52Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
Edmonton Oilers to win1.47Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
Edmonton Oilers to win1.46Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
Edmonton Oilers to win1.45Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
Vancouver Canucks to win2.63Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 days out
Vancouver Canucks to win2.84Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 h out
Vancouver Canucks to win2.83Baseline: every underdog, 3-6 h out
Vancouver Canucks -1.54.28Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
Vancouver Canucks -1.54.49Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
Vancouver Canucks -1.54.66Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out
Under 5.5 goals2.45Baseline: longshot unders, 1-3 days out
Under 5.5 goals2.60Baseline: longshot unders, 12-24 h out
Under 5.5 goals2.52Baseline: longshot unders, 3-6 h out
Under 5.5 goals2.50Baseline: longshot unders, 6-12 h out

Baselines back both sides by design.

PICKFLAFlorida Panthers
8:00 PMMT · @U 5.5
SJSSan Jose Sharks
Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks
FLAFlorida Panthers to win in regulation2.23$10 wins $12.30 · price says 45% chanceLockedLab: away win, 1-3 days out · locked 8:00 PM
U 5.5Under 5.5 goals2.33$10 wins $13.30 · price says 43% chanceLockedPaper bot: main strategy · locked 8:05 AM

Baseline tests (not recommendations)

Florida Panthers to win1.76Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
Florida Panthers to win1.69Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
Florida Panthers to win1.66Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
Florida Panthers to win1.67Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
San Jose Sharks to win2.12Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 days out
San Jose Sharks to win2.26Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 h out
San Jose Sharks to win2.29Baseline: every underdog, 3-6 h out
San Jose Sharks -1.53.45Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
San Jose Sharks -1.53.64Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
San Jose Sharks -1.53.70Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out
Under 5.5 goals2.33Baseline: longshot unders, 1-3 days out
Under 5.5 goals2.35Baseline: longshot unders, 12-24 h out
Under 5.5 goals2.38Baseline: longshot unders, 3-6 h out
Under 5.5 goals2.33Baseline: longshot unders, 6-12 h out

Baselines back both sides by design.

UPCOMING PICKS

Locked, for games after Thursday, October 1

Friday, October 2

BOSBoston Bruins
6:00 PMMT · @
PICKWPGWinnipeg Jets
Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets
WPGWinnipeg Jets to win in regulation2.46$10 wins $14.60 · price says 41% chanceLockedLab: home win, 12-24 h out · locked 6:00 PM

Sunday, October 4

PICKFLAFlorida Panthers
6:00 PMMT · @
ANAAnaheim Ducks
Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks
FLAFlorida Panthers to win in regulation2.39$10 wins $13.90 · price says 42% chanceLockedLab: away win, 1-3 days out · locked 6:45 PM

Results

Last 14 days: 65 paper-bot picks, 0 lab picks settled

Real picks, newest first

Thu Oct 1FLAFlorida Panthers to win in regulationFLA @ SJStook 2.23, closed n/aLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30U 4.5Under 4.5 goalsPIT @ PHItook 3.93, closed 3.98missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30PHIPhiladelphia Flyers to winPIT @ PHItook 1.76, closed 1.71beat closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30PITPittsburgh Penguins to winPIT @ PHItook 2.12, closed 2.19missed closeWon+1.12u
Wed Sep 30PITPittsburgh Penguins -1.5PIT @ PHItook 3.48, closed 3.60missed closeWon+2.48u
Wed Sep 30PHIPhiladelphia Flyers to winPIT @ PHItook 1.73, closed 1.71beat closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30PITPittsburgh Penguins -1.5PIT @ PHItook 3.56, closed 3.60missed closeWon+2.56u
Wed Sep 30U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsPIT @ PHItook 2.20, closed 2.20missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30PHIPhiladelphia Flyers to winPIT @ PHItook 1.71, closed 1.71missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30PITPittsburgh Penguins -1.5PIT @ PHItook 3.60, closed 3.60missed closeWon+2.60u
Wed Sep 30U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsPIT @ PHItook 2.20, closed 2.20missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30PHIPhiladelphia Flyers to winPIT @ PHItook 1.69, closed 1.71missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30PITPittsburgh Penguins to winPIT @ PHItook 2.23, closed 2.19beat closeWon+1.23u
Wed Sep 30PITPittsburgh Penguins to winPIT @ PHItook 2.18, closed 2.19missed closeWon+1.18u
Wed Sep 30TORToronto Maple Leafs to winNYI @ TORtook 1.83, closed 1.73beat closeWon+0.83u
Wed Sep 30NYINew York Islanders to winNYI @ TORtook 2.03, closed 2.16missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30NYINew York Islanders -1.5NYI @ TORtook 3.31, closed 3.54missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsNYI @ TORtook 2.25, closed 2.15beat closeWon+1.25u
Wed Sep 30U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsNYI @ TORtook 2.25, closed 2.15beat closeWon+1.25u
Wed Sep 30TORToronto Maple Leafs to winNYI @ TORtook 1.81, closed 1.73beat closeWon+0.81u
Wed Sep 30NYINew York Islanders -1.5NYI @ TORtook 3.32, closed 3.54missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30TORToronto Maple Leafs to winNYI @ TORtook 1.81, closed 1.73beat closeWon+0.81u
Wed Sep 30NYINew York Islanders -1.5NYI @ TORtook 3.35, closed 3.54missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30TORToronto Maple Leafs to winNYI @ TORtook 1.79, closed 1.73beat closeWon+0.79u
Wed Sep 30NYINew York Islanders to winNYI @ TORtook 2.08, closed 2.16missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30NYINew York Islanders to winNYI @ TORtook 2.10, closed 2.16missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30U 6.5Under 6.5 goalsLAK @ COLtook 1.77, closed 1.80missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30COLColorado Avalanche to winLAK @ COLtook 1.57, closed 1.50beat closeWon+0.57u
Wed Sep 30LAKLos Angeles Kings to winLAK @ COLtook 2.47, closed 2.67missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30LAKLos Angeles Kings -1.5LAK @ COLtook 4.09, closed 4.44missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsLAK @ COLtook 2.20, closed 2.27missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsLAK @ COLtook 2.22, closed 2.27missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30COLColorado Avalanche to winLAK @ COLtook 1.54, closed 1.50beat closeWon+0.54u
Wed Sep 30LAKLos Angeles Kings -1.5LAK @ COLtook 4.23, closed 4.44missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsLAK @ COLtook 2.22, closed 2.27missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30COLColorado Avalanche to winLAK @ COLtook 1.52, closed 1.50beat closeWon+0.52u
Wed Sep 30LAKLos Angeles Kings -1.5LAK @ COLtook 4.34, closed 4.44missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsLAK @ COLtook 2.22, closed 2.27missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30COLColorado Avalanche to winLAK @ COLtook 1.51, closed 1.50beat closeWon+0.51u
Wed Sep 30LAKLos Angeles Kings to winLAK @ COLtook 2.63, closed 2.67missed closeLost-1.00u
Wed Sep 30LAKLos Angeles Kings to winLAK @ COLtook 2.66, closed 2.67missed closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29U 4.5Under 4.5 goalsNYR @ BOStook 3.74, closed 3.74missed closeWon+2.74u
Tue Sep 29NYRNew York Rangers to winNYR @ BOStook 1.96, closed 1.95beat closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29NYRNew York Rangers -1.5NYR @ BOStook 3.19, closed 3.17beat closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsMTL @ TORtook 2.33, closed 2.39missed closeWon+1.33u
Tue Sep 29MTLMontreal Canadiens to winMTL @ TORtook 1.96, closed 1.92beat closeWon+0.96u
Tue Sep 29MTLMontreal Canadiens -1.5MTL @ TORtook 3.15, closed 3.09beat closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsMTL @ TORtook 2.33, closed 2.39missed closeWon+1.33u
Tue Sep 29TORToronto Maple Leafs to winMTL @ TORtook 1.93, closed 1.92beat closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29TORToronto Maple Leafs -1.5MTL @ TORtook 3.10, closed 3.09beat closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsFLA @ CARtook 2.31, closed 2.28beat closeWon+1.31u
Tue Sep 29U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsFLA @ CARtook 2.35, closed n/aWon+1.35u
Tue Sep 29CARCarolina Hurricanes to winFLA @ CARtook 1.81, closed n/aLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29FLAFlorida Panthers to winFLA @ CARtook 2.05, closed n/aWon+1.05u
Tue Sep 29FLAFlorida Panthers -1.5FLA @ CARtook 3.31, closed n/aLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29U 5.5Under 5.5 goalsFLA @ CARtook 2.31, closed n/aWon+1.31u
Tue Sep 29CARCarolina Hurricanes to winFLA @ CARtook 1.80, closed n/aLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29FLAFlorida Panthers -1.5FLA @ CARtook 3.34, closed n/aLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29VGKVegas Golden Knights to winCHI @ VGKtook 1.38, closed 1.38missed closeWon+0.38u
Tue Sep 29CHIChicago Blackhawks to winCHI @ VGKtook 3.15, closed 3.15missed closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29VGKVegas Golden Knights -1.5CHI @ VGKtook 2.08, closed 2.07beat closeWon+1.08u
Tue Sep 29VGKVegas Golden Knights to winCHI @ VGKtook 1.38, closed 1.38missed closeWon+0.38u
Tue Sep 29VGKVegas Golden Knights -1.5CHI @ VGKtook 2.07, closed 2.07missed closeWon+1.07u
Tue Sep 29VGKVegas Golden Knights to winCHI @ VGKtook 1.38, closed 1.38missed closeWon+0.38u
Tue Sep 29CHIChicago Blackhawks to winCHI @ VGKtook 3.15, closed 3.15missed closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29CHIChicago Blackhawks to winCHI @ VGKtook 3.15, closed 3.15missed closeLost-1.00u
Tue Sep 29EDMEdmonton Oilers to win in regulation @ EDMtook 2.02, closed n/aVoided

Pickers

The ring is how often a picker beat PlayAlberta's closing price: green above 50%, red below. The bar is progress toward its first verdict.

33%
Paper bot: main strategy
9 picks locked, 2-2-0, +2.05u, beat close 33% of the time
new
Lab: away win, 1-3 days out
2 picks locked, 0 settled, 0-1-0, -1.00u
0/100 settled picks · 100 settled picks short of a first verdict
new
Lab: home win, 1-3 days out
0 picks locked, 1 voided, 0 settled
0/100 settled picks · 100 settled picks short of a first verdict
new
Lab: home win, 12-24 h out
1 pick locked, 0 settled
0/100 settled picks · 100 settled picks short of a first verdict

Baselines (not recommendations)

92%
Baseline: every favourite, 1-3 days out
22 picks locked, 4-2-0, +0.75u, beat close 92% of the time
85%
Baseline: every favourite, 6-12 h out
14 picks locked, 2-4-0, -2.67u, beat close 85% of the time
31%
Baseline: favourite -1.5, 1-3 days out
22 picks locked, 2-4-0, -0.44u, beat close 31% of the time
31%
Baseline: favourite -1.5, 6-12 h out
14 picks locked, 1-5-0, -2.40u, beat close 31% of the time
0%
Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 days out
17 picks locked, 2-3-0, -0.83u, beat close 0% of the time
92%
Baseline: every favourite, 12-24 h out
13 picks locked, 3-1-0, +0.73u, beat close 92% of the time
58%
Baseline: every favourite, 3-6 h out
12 picks locked, 3-1-0, +0.68u, beat close 58% of the time
10%
Baseline: every underdog, 1-3 h out
10 picks locked, 1-3-0, -1.82u, beat close 10% of the time
10%
Baseline: every underdog, 3-6 h out
10 picks locked, 1-3-0, -1.77u, beat close 10% of the time
17%
Baseline: favourite -1.5, 12-24 h out
13 picks locked, 2-2-0, +1.63u, beat close 17% of the time
29%
Baseline: longshot unders, 1-3 days out
9 picks locked, 3-1-0, +2.93u, beat close 29% of the time
20%
Baseline: longshot unders, 12-24 h out
5 picks locked, 1-2-0, -0.75u, beat close 20% of the time
0%
Baseline: longshot unders, 6-12 h out
5 picks locked, 2-1-0, +1.64u, beat close 0% of the time
0%
Baseline: longshot unders, 3-6 h out
5 picks locked, 0-2-0, -2.00u, beat close 0% of the time